The Guide Through Storms

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The “Northern Passage” recently sought shelter in a fjord in South Greenland. Our expedition meteorologist Marc De Keyser casts light on recent weather developments and explains why this was necessary. He shares insights about his speciality, which is reflected in the name of his website Weather4Expeditions.com

by Olav Grinde

“There is a quickly deepening depression over the Labrador Sea. Friday morning it appeared for the first time on my model maps, which lit my red alert. The next run confirmed this development, with wind speeds up to 40 knots near Cape Farewell. This is the southernmost point of Greenland and it is renowned for its treacherous currents, which makes navigation there very dangerous – comparable to Cape Horn, the most southern point of South America.”

Safety is paramount
“You do not want to round Cape Farewell under severe gale conditions! So I gave the guys a heads up about this, and advised them to look for shelter in one of the fjords before the gale started. However, the latest run of my simulation programs shows that the track of the depression is centred farther south, which would make the wind conditions around the southern point of Greenland slightly calmer.

“So I have sent them this update and mentioned an alternative: to head for Prins Christiansund and – as soon as conditions allow – continue eastwards.

“From my point of view, safety is always the most important issue. I don’t see this Arctic circumnavigation as a race between “Peter 1” and the “Northern Passage”. I think it is a benefit that both vessels are so close; if something were to happen they would be able to assist each other, as they have in fact already done in various matters.”

Tailor-made forecasts
“How this is different from “ordinary” meteorology? Well, you do of course have to be a trained and experienced meteorologist in order to produce tailor-made weather forecasts for people who are engaged in activities in the most extreme locations of our planet. In addition you need to understand how expedition people think and what they specifically want.

“As a matter of fact, you need to be a team member yourself and do everything possible to make that expedition a success. And continuity is very important. Continuity means that you watch and study the weather patterns and model runs every day, in the morning and in the evening. It is not just a job that you quickly do between your main course and dessert.”

Challenging the North Atlantic
“Every kind of expedition has its own specific challenges. For the “Northern Passage” the most important challenge is to get the guys safely back home. This must never be forgotten.

“This last leg, especially, will be quite difficult because they have to cross the North Atlantic, which from a meteorological point of view is a ‘motorway for frontal depressions’. In other words, in this part of the Atlantic, and especially now during the autumn, depressions can form quickly and explosively, deepening as they move toward Europe. So at this stage of the expedition, it is even more important to study each and every run carefully.”

Forecasts for Himalaya climbers
“These days, in addition to the “Northern Passage”, I am making weather forecasts for Eric Larsen, who is climbing Everest. These forecasts focus on wind speed at different altitudes, clouds, snowfall and visibility, temperatures and wind-chill. Eric uses my forecasts for planning and as a tool when making key decisions. Just like the captain of the “Northern Passage”, although the parameters are different.“

From F-16s to the Antarctic
Marc used to work as an operational weather forecaster at an air force base. Making forecasts for F-16 jet pilots was a job that generated a lot of pressure and stress.

“I started that job in 1990 and did it for about ten years. Then you might say that I traded the air for the sea and became a hydro-meteorologist, making predictions about waves and tides, issuing storm warnings and flood warnings and the like.

“Between jobs I got the opportunity to visit Rothera, the British research station on the Antarctic Peninsula. I worked at the station as a meteorologist for two summer seasons, and that is when I started to become very interested in polar meteorology. Within three weeks I’ll leave for my seventh summer season on the Antarctic continent. I will work there as an operational meteorologist, making weather forecasts for scientific as well as adventure expeditions. This will be my fourth season working for the Antarctic Logistics and Expeditions; we have our base camp near Patriot Hills, at 80°south.

“Actually, Patriot Hills is where I met Borge a few seasons ago, and he started talking about this expedition.”

The kiting specialist
“What kind of expeditions do I assist? I am a specialist in kite-surfing expeditions on the Greenland ice cap. I have supported numerous north-south and east-west crossings, for adventurers such as Ronny Finsås, Christian Eide and Cecilie Skog. In addition I have supported two kite-buggy expeditions, one going across the Gobi Desert (Sarah McNair-Landry and her brother Eric) and the other across the Sahara. And of course there have been innumerable sail races and sailing voyages. Together with my colleague Fritz Buyl, I route small and tall ships during races and other trips.

“Earlier this year I assisted a team of seven summit climbers on their quest to conquer the highest peak on every continent. And a few weeks ago I made the forecasts for two guys who wanted to cross the Bering Strait with kites. To answer your question in simpler terms: for any kind of expedition or voyage that requires tailor-made weather forecasts, you can count on our service.”

Meticulous preparations
We ask Marc whether there have been surprises on the Northern Passage 2010 Expedition:

“The truth is that the meticulous preparations of Borge and Thorleif have ruled out most surprises. This more than anything is the key to their success. They have studied every little detail for years – and never given up even when bureaucracy becomes ‘bureaucrazy’. Captain Thorleif’s skill, experience and eagerness are indispensable. Borge and Thorleif are the perfect combination!”

An integral part of the team
Together with ice expert Nick Hughes of the Norwegian Ice Service, Marc De Keyser has been an integral part of the team since Day One.

“I know Nick from this expedition. His contributions to this expedition have been crucial. He is the guide, leading the Northern Passage through belts of sea ice and safely past icebergs. He is incredibly skilled and accurate, and it has been a pleasure working with him.”

Climate and weather
“Are we seeing changing weather patterns in the Arctic as a result of global climate change? At this point in time it is still difficult to say. A lot of people do make a lot of claims about this subject, but as I said before the nature of weather is very changeable in itself, so it is very difficult to recognise changing patterns just yet.

“Having had my head in the clouds for 20 years, I have learned that weather is inherently fickle in character. It is, for example, impossible to make anything approaching reliable seasonal forecasts. I have immense respect for nature. My personal impression is that there are fewer storms than usual. But I am sure that if I say this out loud, there will be plenty of storms next year!”